| PEAK OIL/PEAK ENERGY TIMELINES |
| Information from several sources printed and online: Hirsch reports, www.theoildrum.com, ASPO sites, US Goverment sources, www.energybulletin.net, and some others. This page done in August 2006 |
| DATES | SOURCE | |
| December 2005 | Deffeyes (U.S.) | |
| 2006: Now or just Past | Richard Heinberg | |
| 2006?: Anyway It's Coming | James Kunstler, author & messenger | |
| 2006-2007 | Bakhtiari (Iran) | |
| 2007-2009 | Simmons (U.S.) | |
| After 2007 [2010 as of 6/2006?] | Skrebowski (U.K.) | |
| 2010 | Campbell (Ireland, ASPO) | |
| Before 2010 | Goodstein (U.S.) | |
| After 2010 | World Energy Council | |
| 2012 | Weng (China) | |
| 2016 | Doug-Westwood (U.K.) | |
| After 2020 | CERA (U.S. Firm) | |
| 2030 Or Later | EIA (U.S. Dept. Energy), IEA (Int. Energy Association), Exxon/Mobil, USGS |
| PEAK NATURAL GAS believed to come very soon or at same time as PEAK OIL |
| North American Natural Gas (Canada and U.S.),peak in 2007-2009 | Many |
| 2008-2009 peak gas | Bahktiari |
| My Timeline From Notes | ||
| Note 8/8/06: | used about 84.5-85.00 mbpd so far in 2006 | |
| Deffeyes | Nov 2005 Peak : 83 (?) mbpd | 2010 -2020? |
| Robert Heinberg | 2006 : Peak Now or Just Past | 2010 - 2020: Very serious; Lord only knows; least optimistic it seems but probably most realistic. |
| James Kunstler | 2006 : Peak Now ? | 2010 - 2020: No dates: Just the messanger but very grim: Peak is Coming! |
| Bahktiari | 2006 Peak: 84? mbpd [2008-2009 peak gas] | Decrease over 14 yrs to 55 mbpd in 2020. 4 transition periods between now and 2020: T1 begins in 2006; then T2, T3, T4; 3-4 yrs per each. |
| ASPO : Kjell Aleklett, Colin Campbell, et al. | 2006 : 85 mbpd | 2010 Peak: 93 mbpd : 2020 ? Factors include,decline rate 2% or 8%, demand/supply, geopolitics |
| Optimists: USGS, IEA (International Energy Oranization),EIA (U.S.),Cera | 2006 : 85 mbpd | 2020-2030 Peak : 110 mbpd |
| Boomers Age b. 1946 | 2008 - 62 years Early SS | 2011 - 65 years |
| Boomers Age b. 1950 | 2012 - 62 years Early SS | 2016 - 65 years |
| Boomers Age b. 1954 | 2016 - 62 years Early SS | 2019 - 65 years |
Wwhere did I find this info below?? I don't remember. Table 2.1 Predictions of when oil production will peak Projected Date Source of Projection Background 2006-2007 Bakhitari, A.M.S. Iranian Oil Executive 2007-2009 Simmons, M.R. Investment banker After 2007 Skrebowski, C. Petroleum journal Editor Before 2009 Deffeyes, K.S. Oil company geologist (ret.) Before 2010 Goodstein, D. Vice Provost, Cal Tech Around 2010 Campbell, C.J. Oil company geologist (ret.) After 2010 World Energy Council World Non-Government Org. 2010-2020 Laherrere, J. Oil company geologist (ret.) 2016 EIA nominal case DOE analysis/ information After 2020 CERA Energy consultants 2025 or later Shell Major oil company No visible peak Lynch, M.C. Energy economist Table 2.3 The past and projected oil demand and supply from EIA Short Term Energy Outlook August 20051. 2004 2005 2006 2004 2005 2006 Quarter 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 Average Average Average Demand 82.5 81.1 81.7 84.4 84.2 82.2 83.9 86.4 86 84.3 85.6 88 82.5 84.2 86 Supply 82.3 82.3 83.5 84 84.1 84.5 84.5 85.4 85.4 85.5 86.2 86.9 83 84.6 86
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