Retired State Librarian's Lunch Day: Everyone is enjoying their time off, those who are still newsly retired! No one wants to talk about anything worse than a few more dollars possible to pay for health insurance. Talked a little about the budget cutting at the state agency where we used to work--and the city of Phoenix budget cuts at their library.

My friend, L. in Virginnia told me her sister and friend in colorado are in significant problems because of 2 houses they own, her knee injury and the fact that he lost all his life savings in " a big company that had scandal attached to it"--Enron! Of course, tha happened several years ago but that and other events are sapping the life force out of L.'s sister.

S.'s husband is retiring from Sprint but their company lost a significant amouont in the last quarter--it seems like every company at all lost some. Hopefully, this doesn't affect the cash he was going to take out for his retirement. Someone always asks about an increase in the pensions at the beginning of the next fiscal year, but I know we won't be getting any for a long time. 5 years was the last statement from the ASRS. I bet it'll be longer than that. Other than that we all had the usual pleasant time.

Arizona Republic reports that Phoenix city budget this year has to be cut by the biggest amount since—well, at least since the mid-1970s when I went to work for them on some federal job stimulus program of that time. The Arizona State budget is in no better shape. The cuts made at the State Library this year are more severe than they were in the 12 years I worked there and I worked during two downturns of our local econonmy.

Re un and employment figures: From theautomaticearth.com mar 8th: If history is a reliable guide, the recession of 2008 is now unavoidable. The dismal jobs report released Friday showed overall employment to be lower than it was three months ago. Every time such a slump has occurred since the early 1970s, a recession has followed — or already been under way.

And if the good times have really ended, they were never that good to begin with. Most American households are still not earning as much annually as they did in 1999, once inflation is taken into account. Since the Census Bureau began keeping records in the 1960s, a prolonged expansion has never ended without household income having set a new record.

For months, policy makers and Wall Street economists have been predicting, and hoping, that the aggressive series of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve would keep the economy growing, despite the housing bust. But the possibility seemed to diminish almost by the hour on Friday.

Even the one apparent piece of good news in the employment report was a mirage. The unemployment rate fell to 4.8 percent, from 4.9 percent in January, but only because more people stopped looking for work and thus were not counted as unemployed by the government. Over the last year, the number of officially unemployed has risen by 500,000, while the number of people outside the labor force — neither working nor looking for a job — has risen by 1.3 million.

Employment has risen by 100,000, but even that comes with a caveat: there are also 600,000 more people who are working part time because they could not find full-time work, according to the Labor Department. “The decline in the unemployment rate,” said Joshua Shapiro, an economist at MFR, a research firm in New York, “should not be viewed as good news.”

Otherwise, a beautiful spring day in Phoenix! Desert overall is so green because of good winter rains this year. DDJ at 11,746.00

Gold gone over $1,000. Gas: 3.19, Loaves of Bread at SafewaT-he today were mostly just over $4.00.

From Yahoo finance: “U.S. has finally slid into recession, according to the majority of economists in the latest Wall Street Journal economic-forecasting survey,.”

Gas nationally and locally is now higher than it ever has been which was after Katrina in August-Sept 2005. We’re still on the undulating plateau of oil production various peak oil scholars have predicted—the plateaus has been here since May 2005--but somewhere in 2010 we start down the other side of Hubberts curve.

It looks like it could play out like this (the next few years, say 5, not more than 10 though):

FSN, the European LEAP reports and one other place I’ve read in the past few months suggest that things will improve from the 2-3 quarter. FSN particularly has said this, so far. Then in late summer, maybe mid- to end 3th qrt or beginning of 4th quarter, the whole economy, equities market, etc. really sinks more and more. Recession, which is really here in Mar 2008, continues and gets deeper—how much deeper? Don’t know but even many who have been optimistic think housing, equities, etc will take longer to recover than the end of this year. It was all extend into and throughout 2009, maybe into 2010.

2008 and 2009 still has many ARMS to reset, which will make all the housing worse, but these days many other parts of the financial /economic world are going wrong.

In the 2009-2012 presidents term, Medicare will start having a negative cash flow, Social Security is in better shape ujtil 2017 or something—just when I can collect, if I don’t collect when I’m 62.

So, by the beginning of 2010 we’ll be at a turnaround for economy or still going deeper into depression? Our resource restraints of oil should be really biting with long sharp teeth by the end of the next presidential term. It bites now but the teeth will be bigger and sharper. And what about the food market by then? Will the great upshot in food/commodity prices still be going up by then? Will they be part of the equities market crash in late 2008, if that happens?

I can’t imagine that if oil peaks and our supply starts shrinking, and other natural resources like the way crops and food are now would keep getting worse, we’re not going to have much recovery from the economic troubles we’ve got ahead in the next two years. And how fast is climate change going to run along in these next few years???

Another Topic: K.s hearing was yesterday. The judge wants to keep him until April 28th. I’ll try to be at that one. His lawyer is going to try to get counselors into to see him. He will try to talk me into some kind of bail—that is if permission for me to visit him is given before his next hearing. I told his lawyer I wasn’t so willing to do anything to back a bond for him because of all the money I’ve spent on him the last 4 years.

No news of K. yet status there is the same. Went to san diego for a few days 3;20-3/25 to try to see him and see what else was happening there. Beautfiful weather . R. & family made me feel like their own family. Market has rallied some in the past week. Gas: 3.29

NBC evening news had achilling story about how the salmon fishing industry of the North and West US has been shut down because of too few fish—chinook salmon out there to catch. The population according to this report has fallen an awful lot in the past 3 years. The Brian wiliams, anchorman spoke of the extinction of the species. And we don’t’ know what specifically Is causing it—warming oceans, more use of inland rivers for irrigation that the fish need to spawn. Our ecological and food news gets worse and worse with every passing week. From online Sacramento Register-Guard: http://www.registerguard.com/csp/cms/sites/dt.cms.support.viewStory.cls?cid=93127&sid=5&fid=1

"The collapse of the Sacramento chinook has been nothing less than epic. The numbers of spawning fish have dropped from more than 800,000 just six years ago to just over 68,000 last year, and fisheries experts predict that few more than 50,000 fish will be in the river this fall.

The National Marine Fisheries Service points to changing ocean conditions as the probable cause, in particular a recent lack of nutrient-rich deep ocean upwellings caused by water temperature changes.

But ocean conditions are only a partial explanation, and the Bush administration must be held to account for its policies that have contributed to excessive water diversions from the Sacramento River Delta, agricultural pollution and deteriorated habitat.

If that sounds familiar, it’s because similar policies and conditions contributed the Klamath River’s poor returns, which forced severe ocean-fishing restrictions in 2005 and 2006.

Last year, the Columbia River Basin, which once had the world’s most prolific salmon runs, saw less than 2 percent of its historic salmon return in the fall. As a result, federal regulators were forced to cut commercial fishing, already at historic lows, in half." And there have been several instances of food riots in the past few weeks in several countries. Food shortages, fish shortages, natural resource shortages, all happening at the same time .... not to mention the mad made financial world shortages ...

oh yes, Gen. Petraeus said this week about the year old military surge in Iraq: It has improved but it's still fragile, the improvement in less violence in Iraq but there is no light at the end of the tunnel and the champagne bottle is back at the back of the fridge ...

I have decided that all of the signs of the Big Day of Reckonining/downfall of fossifuel society/modern society/the Shit Hitting the Fan--is NOW! Doom has become main stream current events!

In the NBC broadcast news this evening:

Airlines are cutting back severely on on scheduled flights for the rest of the year; or after summer vacations. It’s just too expensive to keep flying the current schedules with the price of oil and their fuel needs. Major airports will have cutbacks in carriers and some smaller places will end up with very few carriers, even if they have been regional jets. Two years ago on The Oildrum.com I read some comment about an airline worker(?) at a conference remarking that in 10 years no planes will be flyin, at least no commercial airlines.

GM is closing 4 plants that make SUV stuff; and they may discontinue the Hummer model! Hummers’ were quite the thing to have the past few years. It seems quite a turnaround from the way things stood in public discourse and the national outlook and the economy just a year ago.

MidWestern floods are receding but who knows how bad the corn, soybean and other crops have been effected. this will influence prices and not for the better.

Dow Jones dropped 350 points today; a very bad month for markets as we've dropped about 1000 pts.

8-20-08 Gas dropped in price for 42nd continuous days.

8-22-08 Barrel Crude: $114.59.

8-30-08 Gas here today for 3.61: Crude at 115.46. Gas has been down that low for about 5 days now; this is probably as low as it’s going to get for a while since Gustave Hurricane at No. 4 is within 48 hours of central to eastern part of Louisiana coast. It just finished over Cuba and has entered the GOM. Landfall is expected around Houma and Morgan city at the last info I read at oildrum.com and one of the weather sites. I’ve also been reading this evening a few comments on the above website about Gustavo is really projected to move closer to New Orleans than it has been the past day or so. So, is this the stake in the heart of Southern Louisiana and New Orleans? We always need a port there but maybe not a big city. I guess we’ll know about that Sunday morning.

And the damage to the oil/gas stuff? I don’t want to think about that at the moment. I’ve read enough about that for one day.

Oil/Gas for 75% of GOM production has shut down and evacuated workers. NYMEX trading usually opens on a Sunday at 6 p.m. but tomorrow it’s opening like 3 -3.5 hours early. (I don’t know where NYMEX actually is, if it has a location. It may be a cyber exchange and “opens” in relation to the many stock markets around the world.)

9-6-08 Gas 3.57 a gallon; 106.23 a barrel. Gustav didn’t do much damage; maybe Ike mid next week will hit the Gulf Coast somewhere.

9-8-08 Gas 3.53; oil 106.34. Ike rolling in from socking it to Cuba; it will hit somewhere in West Louisiana or Texas this weekend that we know so far.

9-11-08 Regular Gas 3.51-3.52; Oil crude at $100.87. Why so low? Govt or whoever/whatever keeping it down until after the elections, hoping Gustave and Ike aftermath won’t be too bad??

Ike is going to hit the Texas coast around Galveston-Houston Friday evening or night according to the Hurricane Center. It will be at least a Cat2; maybe a 3-4. It’s very large and spread out over a large area; it’s coming at high tide and this will add a lot to the storm surge. Gas has already gone up 20 cents a gallon in Nashville, TN according to my friend, Diana who lives there. She called and said overnight their gas went up that much. But they live in a part of the country that gets all their supplies from the gulf Coast; Western US and Arizona get most of Gas from California.

According to Nola.com late Thursday afternoon, parishes in Louisiana are threatened by storm surge starting that afternoon! Recovery efforts have been closed down until the tropical storm threat from Ike passes by. Jeez these poor people!

9-12-08 Crude Oil: $101.18 at close of business on Ike day.

11.00 a.m MST News online from different sources: Masters’ at Wunderground Ike will be more powerful and destructive than Katrina or Rita or Gustav. Not just the category of hurricane but how wide an area it covers and winds and the energy it creates and how it pushes sea water or ground water into a surge. I certainly don’t understand all of that but Jeff Master’s says it could be one of the most destructive storms of all time. The whole of Galveston Island was supposed to be evacuated but only about 1/3 did.

At TOD someone posted about something about a military officer remarking on rescuing 37,000 people.

Aftermath of Ike, after all the other storms and stuff, will have a terrible effect on the ability to restore power after power crews have been out in Louisiana the past 2 weeks and parts of the East Coast had power problems after Hanna, TS , went through. Galveston, about 38,000 people, didn’t evacuate and this morning the storm surge of Ike, just the beginnings of Ike, are flooding the island.

1:10 p.m. MST Downtown Galveston is filled with water already … 30 % of the city hasn’t evacuated and one bridge out is impassable and the other one has risk of high winds … there are only two bridges out of Galveston; Anniversary of Hurricane Carla, too.

From TOD: 19:55CDT KHOU-TV: Galveston has lost electricity. (7:55 p.m. CDT)

My mom passed away Sept 30th after a few days in the hospistal, she couldn’t breathe, pneumonia and/or ? , IV antibiotics and some heart medication(right side heart failure) and then it was a choice of respirators or not. The answer was not and she had stopped eating entirely after 4 days. Then it was hospice on about 48 hours and she was gone, very peacefully and quiets. She knew me until the last 24 hours.

Stock market has gyrated wildly for the past 3-4 weeks; it lost almost 2000 points in the week of Oct 6-10th.

Oil is down to between 50-80 dollars a barrel; gas has gone down a lot since Hurricane Ike, locally. It went up and there were shortages in the southeast US until about the past few days.

October 22 DJA down to 8519 today; it was at 9400?? Something on Monday. No kickstart to the market or economy seems to keep the engine going for very long. The market only responds positively to any efforts made for a few days or hours the past 5 weeks. Barrel Oil: $66.75

On First Business Day of 2009 on January 2, 2009:

Basic Stats for first business day of the new year:

Oil crude barrel: 46.34

DJA today: 9034.69 Optimism today!

S&P 500: 931.77

Gallon of gas here: 1.49-1.55

Not sure what I want to do with this page (pages) further. Econ is much worse than in October with unemployment risien, housing still further down, great increases in people seeking help at local food pantries, worst Christmas retail in 40 (!) years, all automobile sales negative all across the world. US makers may just die or merge in next few months. Worse expected in the next 6-9 months. Optimists think econ will improve after that; more realists think it will be a weak recovery into 2010 and 2011. Even heating oil went way down during the fall months. Prices of oil have tanked and Russia and OPECs feel it in their national budgets. Gasoline is almost down to what it was 4 years ago less in some places. That's when I started with this page! Prices won't stay this way too long, I'm sure. Maybe summer before oil/gas starts going up again.